I found a pretty good link that describes the Task Manager display and virtual memory (VM) for Windows at DSL Reports.
The most important snippet is that Commit Charge is basically how much of the VM is not backed by a named file, e.g., an exe file. It's not exactly total VM but not exactly what is paged either. It's all of the committed memory that could be paged to the page file, i.e., charged to the page file.
So, if I understand this now, if the commit charge is larger than the available physical memory, then some of it is definitely paged!